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NFL Week 1 Surprise Odds
When it comes to setting the NFL odds for Week 1, oddsmakers had all summer to post and adjust those numbers before kickoff. But even with ample opportunity to tighten those spreads and totals, some odds catch you by surprise. Here are a few Week 1 numbers that just aren't sitting right with bettors:
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 48)
Just about eight months ago, these two teams battled for a ticket to the Super Bowl in one of the best games of 2009-10. The New Orleans Saints snuffed out a last-minute drive by Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings, forced overtime, and eventually won the NFC Championship, 31-28, on a 40-yard field goal from Garrett Hartley.
That loss is one of the biggest reasons why Favre decided to return to the Vikings. The greybeard quarterback will be hellbent on avenging that defeat and erasing that costly interception in the final seconds of the fourth quarter. While the Saints are the defending champs, 4.5 points seems a little fat for a grudge match of this magnitude.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 47)
Sure, the quarterback battle steals the headlines in this Week 1 matchup but there is no way this game should have a total as high as 47 points. While the public, and obviously oddsmakers, have fallen in love with Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Kolb, two of the best defenses in the NFL go tit-for-tat.
The Packers have taken to the 3-4 defense like a duck to water. Last year, they ranked second in the league in average yards allowed and boasted the top run-stop unit in the NFL. It seems the embarrassing 51-45 shootout loss to the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs is still fresh in some peoples' minds.
The Eagles will be relying on their defense to carry the team while new starter Kolb gets his feet wet on offense. Philadelphia was 12th in average yards allowed last year but brought in some capable additions to a blitz-happy squad that totaled 44 sacks (tied for third), 25 interceptions (fourth), and recovered 13 fumbles (tied for fifth) in 2009.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 40.5)
The Oakland Raiders are a bad team, but are they really 6.5 points worse than the Tennessee Titans? Tennessee didn't really wow football fans this summer and quarterback Vince Young, who was 24-for-35 passing for 278 yards, one touchdown, and one interception this preseason, is the most streaky player in the NFL.
Oakland backers may not have much more to brag about. The Raiders have a ton of questions on both sides of the ball including a new quarterback in Jason Campbell. However, Oakland has covered the spread in four straight games versus the Titans and is 6-1 ATS in their past seven meetings.
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